Analysis of Stakeholders Perceptions of The Impact of Crisis on Tourism in Ogun State, Nigeria

Abstract


INTRODUCTION
Crises including ethnic disturbances, kidnapping, terrorism, and the COVID-19 pandemic can have a negative impact on the livelihoods of the host community, tourists, and the tourism industry of tourist-generating and destination regions (Nicola et al., 2020;Samitas et al., 2018;Senbeto, 2022;Sultana et al., 2020).The effect of any of these crises could lead to cancellations of bookings on airlines, trains, cruises, and hotels (Nicola et al., 2020;Sultana et al., 2020).Consequently, crises can have ripple effects on tourism businesses in terms of a decline in revenue generation, loss of jobs, business closures, and a decline in other socioeconomic activities at affected destinations (Majebi, 2021;Nicola et al., 2020;Senbeto, 2022;Sultana et al., 2020).As tourism remains a major contributor to destinations' socioeconomic development (Ajudua et al., 2022;Ajudua et al., 2021;Amalu et al., 2018;Manzoor et al., 2019;Trusova et al., 2020), crises that can impact the industry demand appropriate collaborative measures among a wide range of stakeholders in identifying and reducing its impact and perhaps preventing its recurrence.
Several extant studies in tourism have investigated the impacts and responses to crises associated with terrorism, political, economic, and health-induced factors, including the COVID-19 Pandemic (Karl et al., 2020;Nicola et al., 2020;Lado-Sestayo et al., 2016;Samitas et al., 2018;Senbeto, 2022).However, knowledge and scholarship in crisis and crisis management are limited in the field of tourism, especially in third world/developing destination contexts like those in Africa (Majebi, 2021;Senbeto, 2022).Tourism in Africa, including Nigeria has been affected by various political, economic, and social crises, such as the ongoing political instability and the threat of terrorism in some of its destinations (Senbeto, 2022).These events, no doubt, would have implications for the destinations' socioeconomic growth.
From the Nigerian tourism sector perspective, Nnam et al. (2020) investigated the effects of the terror crises perpetrated by the Boko Haram terrorists (now referred to as the Islamic State of West African Province-ISWAP) on human security in Nigeria using data collected from newspapers and magazines which were content analyzed.Their result suggests that both the intensity of terrorism and the anxieties it had unleashed on Nigerians have resulted in social and moral panic, with dire consequences on the socio-economic and political development of the destination, including the destinations' tourism industry and subsectors (Majebi, 2021).Also, Okoli & Abubakar (2021) utilize secondary data to examine armed banditry in Nigeria in relation to safety and security.The research shows that banditry is a form of criminal crisis that affects Nigeria's image.
From the foregoing, the push and pull theory can provide a theoretical foundation for this study.The motivation for visiting tourist attractions or destinations can be associated with push or pull factors (Antara & Prameswari, 2018).A push factor, for example, could be described as when a person needs to get out of his/her daily routine, and the urge to travel pushes the person to find information about alternative places for visitation.A pull factor is when a destination attracts the attention of the person(s).Depending on the person('s) findings, he/she is stimulated to find travel alternatives.Nonetheless, people's perceptions based on the information gathered could be based on the combination of both push and pull factors (Antara & Prameswari, 2018).At this stage, the determination of which attributes are important is made, and these are made upon one's intuition or past experiences.The alternatives are usually developed in this stage.Among push factors that could discourage potential or repeat tourists from visiting destinations are poor safety conditions and related concerns, unemployment, poverty, and so on.Pull factors comprise low crime rates, political stability, less risk of natural hazards, and so on.Salimon et al. (2019) examine the joint influence of push, pull, and perceived security issues in Nigeria on tourism intentions.The empirical study administered research instruments to six hundred and fifty (650) participants out of which only three hundred and ten (310) were finally available for analysis.The findings of the study revealed that push and pull factors have a significant and positive impact on tourist intention.Congruent with other studies, the study revealed that whenever tourists perceive their intended tourism destinations as insecure, they avoid such destinations.Nonetheless, it is equally important to examine destination authorities' and attraction managers' perceptions of the impact of crises and efforts toward manageability.
Many of the extant studies on crises that impact tourism employed time series models and content analysis for their investigation in the generic African destination contexts (Senbeto, 2022), with only a few recent studies using a mixed method approach for their studies in a specific destination context.This study is different as it employed a mixed method approach, involving (i) a questionnaire survey to examine tourists' perceptions of crises and its influence on their visitation to attractions at a specific destination (host community), i.e., at Ogun State, Nigeria, (ii) a semi-structured/in-depth interview session with attraction stakeholders to examine their perception of crisis and whether they impact tourist arrivals, revenue generation, and employment at their attractions in Ogun State, Nigeria.Details of this mixed method approach employed for the study have been explained in the methods section of this article.In addition, the outcome of this study would include identifying whether tourists visiting the attractions in the study destination are averse to specific crises and if the destination attraction stakeholders have other concerns that impact their destination.
Several destinations in Nigeria are faced with a wide range of crises that can affect their tourism sector (Foreign Travel Advice Nigeria, 2023;Majebi, 2021).Nonetheless, the choice of Ogun state in the Southwest region of the country for the study is pertinent.This is because, according to Olukoya (2023), diverse opportunities in community-based tourism, culture, and sports abound in the state and they demand public-private partnerships to explore their socioeconomic potential.However, as the International Centre for Investigative Reporting (2022) notes, Ogun State leads in cases of crisis incidents that have led to the killing of 165 people.There is no gainsaying the fact that information about cases of crisis associated with the destinations could discourage tourists from visiting.This can have an impact on the revenue that could be generated from the tourism sectors of the destination and a ripple effect on job losses and a decline in the livelihood of the host community.The novelty of this study is further entrenched in the fact that it is the first to investigate the perceptions of both tourists and attraction stakeholders on crisis, using an empirical approach in a Nigerian destination context, and contributes to the limited literature on crisis impact on tourism in the West African destination context.

RESEARCH METHOD
Quantitative and qualitative data were collected for this research.For the quantitative data, this study collects primary data from 133 tourists/visitors, over a 2-day period through a semistructured questionnaire designed on Google form and administered at the study site.The study destination is Ogun State, Nigeria (see Figure 1) and the tourist attractions sites (Olumo Rock and FUNAAB Zoo and Amusement Park) are in the Abeokuta South and Odeda local government areas at the destination (see Figure 2).The destination was purposively selected based on the reasons given in the introduction section.The questionnaires consist of questions adapted/designed based on extant literature (Antara and Prameswari, 2018;Karl et al., 2020;Senbeto, 2022) and information on the destination's crises from the locals, to get information on the respondents' perceptions of crises.Consequently, the questionnaire sought to retrieve information on whether the identified destination crises, including Snatch theft, tribal/ethnic conflict, kidnapping, political instability, and terrorism influence tourists' visits to the attractions and impact the host community.The number of participants who responded to the administered questionnaires was derived using Yamane's (1967)  The questionnaire instruments were systematically administered at only the Olumo Rock tourist attractions, as there were no tourists at the FUNAAB Zoo and Amusement Park.The questionnaire on crisis perceptions was divided into 5 sections (i.e., A, B, C, D, and E).Section A solicits the demographic details of the respondents, including sex, age, occupation, educational qualification, marital status, monthly income, and travel group.Section B examines the levels of respondents' perceptions of crises (Snatch theft/thuggery, tribal/ethnic conflicts, kidnapping, political instability, terrorism, and level of security) at the destination.Section C examines the influence of the level of crisis on tourists.Section D examines the implications of crisis in the host community.Section E examines the implication of crises on revenue generation and employment.
The questionnaires were administered on Sunday, and Monday (i.e., over a 2-day period) during the Eid-el-fitri Sallah celebration in April 2023 at the Olumo Rock tourist attraction, in Abeokuta, Ogun State, Southwest, Nigeria.This is because the level of visitation during festive and holiday periods to the attraction is usually high, regardless of the threat of crises.The questionnaires were administered to the respondents through systematic random sampling techniques by four (4) trained Research Assistants (RAs), with the aid of their mobile phone devices, where the questionnaires were stored.Each RA was attached to each of the authors, i.e., an RA to 1 author of this article.Each of the RAs was asked to approach each respondent, age 18 and above, who had agreed to respond to the questionnaire after being told what the research was about by an author.The questionnaires were completed at an average of 5 minutes, and a 5-minute interval was given before the next respondent was approached for the completion of the questionnaire (i.e., 10 minutes per respondent).Invariably, each RA administered an average of 6 completed questionnaires per hour.This resulted in a total of 24 completed questionnaires in 1 hour from the 4 RAs.Therefore, a total of 72 questionnaires were completed in 3 hours on the first day (Sunday) of the questionnaire distribution, between the hours of 3 p.m. and 5 p.m. at the study site.The same number of questionnaires were completed within the same timeframe at the study site the next day (i.e., Monday).
Therefore, a total of 144 questionnaires were completed for the two days, out of which 11 of the questionnaires were not properly completed.Therefore, the validly completed questionnaires by the respondents were 133.The data gathered from the respondents were sorted and screened for post-coding, and were subsequently presented in tables, and analyzed using PSPP frequency distribution and descriptive analysis, based on percentages (GNU PSPP Statistical Analysis Software, 2018).The breakdown of results from the validly completed 133 questionnaires is presented in the result and discussion section of this article in Tables 1, Table 2,  Table 3, Table 4, and Table 5 to reflect the outcome of the research questions in the result and discussion section of this article.
For the qualitative data, a semi-structured/in-depth interview (Saunders et al., 2015) session was conducted with two tourist attraction officials (i.e., a Zoo director and an amusement park manager) on crisis perception and its impact on revenue generation and employment at the destination.An electronic device was used to record the interview session after the research participants had given their consent to participate in the research.The interview was conducted at the research participant's office, and the session lasted for about 45 minutes.Efforts to get other destination stakeholders (especially authorities at the Olumo Rock tourist site) to participate in the research, despite employing the snowballing technique (Saunders, et al., 2015) were to no avail.Nonetheless, the authors were able to retrieve relevant information from their interaction with the two tourist attraction officials about the research subject.The information gathered from the officials was manually transcribed and analyzed thematically for ease of discussion of the study findings (Saunders et al., 2018).

RESULT AND DISCUSSION
The results and discussions of the data generated from the study are presented in this section.This is based on the findings from (i) the tourists'/visitors' perception of crises and its influences on their visitation to the attractions and impact on the host community, (ii) the interview sessions with the two (2) attraction managers on their perceptions of crises, and its socioeconomic impact (i.e., revenue generation, employment, community livelihood).
Quantitative results and discussions This section presents the descriptive and inferential analysis of the study.Table 1 provides the demographic information of the 133 tourists (respondents) who participated in the research.It was necessary to report the relevant demographic information (i.e., sex, age, educational qualification, and income) of the tourists to identify/evaluate their categories while visiting the attraction, despite the threats of crises at the destination.
It can be deduced from Table 1, that there were more male tourists (68%) who completed the questionnaires compared to females (32%).This suggests that men are perhaps more predisposed to visiting the attraction at the destination, despite the threats of crises.This finding is consistent with the study of Karl et al. (2020) which show that more men, compared to women visit tourist attraction following crisis threats and experience.In terms of the age of the tourists, many of them (47%) were between the 20-and 30-years age brackets.This is closely followed by those within the 31-40 years adult age bracket (i.e., 23%) of the respondents.This implies that most of the respondents are young/middle-aged adults.This suggests that these categories of tourists are perhaps less worried about the threat of crises at the destination, compared to other age brackets.This finding is consistent with the findings of the study by Karl et al. (2020) that male and younger tourists can endure risks associated with crisis at destinations.Other respondents (30%) comprise those who were less than 20 years old, within the 41-50 years and the above 50 years age brackets.These also confirm Karl et al.'s (2020) and Senbeto & Hon's (2020) findings that tourist visitation to destinations associated with crisis events varies with their sociodemographic characteristics.On the educational qualification of the tourists, the study findings show that 67% of them have at least an OND/NCE qualification, while others (33%) comprise tourists who either hold first school leaving or secondary school certificates.These findings suggest that all the respondents could read and write and may be able to identify and explain the influence of crises on tourism activities at the destination.This high level of literate response is consistent with the studies of Chiu et al. (2019) and Karl et al. (2020) which show that there was no significant difference in the educational level of education of tourists as regards their perceptions of crisis that constitutes risk to them.
On the monthly income of the tourists at the attraction, the findings show that many of them (65%) earn at least 35,000 Naira (i.e., $35 US Dollars) and above, while the others (35%) earn below the same amount.This implies that all the tourists who responded to the questionnaire have access to income that enables visit the attraction for tourism purposes, thereby, contributing to revenue generation at the destination (Amalu et al., 2018).This is congruent with the study of Liu & Pratt (2017) which suggests that income levels at destinations experiencing crises are diverse and vary.It also shows that regardless of the respondents' income level, they have disposable income for tourism purposes (Hole, 2019).
Table 2 gives descriptive statistics on the tourists' perceptions of crises.An interesting finding is that the perceptions of many tourists (over 82%) on crises such as Snatch theft/thuggery, ethnic conflict, and kidnapping/terrorism are very low.However, many of the tourists (67%) also indicated that their perception of the general level of safety and security at the destination was high.These findings as deduced from Table 2 imply that there are threats of potential crises that can impact tourist safety and tourism activities at the destination, even though the respondents do not seem to be worried.This finding is congruent with the study of Fourie et al. (2020) and Ghaderi et al. (2017) which suggests that tourists within certain destinations are more tolerant of insecurity-related crises within their region.
Table 3 gives descriptive statistics on the influence of crises on tourists.Congruent with the results from Table 2, many of the tourists (66%) indicated that crises, including snatch theft and thuggery, have less influence on their visitation to the attractions.However, many of the tourists (over 67%) also affirm that crises, including ethnic conflicts, kidnapping, and terrorism can influence their decision against visiting the attractions, and that this can result in low tourist arrivals.This is congruent with the study of Karl et al. (2020) and Semitas et al. ( 2018) which suggest that crises can have short to long-run effects on tourist perception, depending on the variability of occurrences.
Table 4 gives descriptive statistics on the implications of crises on the host community.The results from the study show that many of the tourists (over 68%) indicated that crises can cause a reduction in investment, employment, population, and the management of tourism resources in the host community.These findings are congruent with the analyses and studies of Seabra (2023) and Sun et al. (2021) which affirm that crises can have adverse and ripple effects on the socioeconomic activities in affected destinations.These are often evident in the loss of livelihoods in affected communities/destinations due to a decline in tourist arrivals (Sun et al., 2021).
Table 5 gives descriptive statistics on the implications of crises on revenue generation.Congruent with the findings from Table 4, the result from the study revealed that crisis can have implications for revenue generation at the attraction and the destination.Specifically, the result from Table 5 shows that many of the tourists (over 65%) indicated that crises can result in low tourist arrivals, income, foreign exchange earnings, and government allocation.These findings further affirm that low tourist arrivals are often associated with a decline in revenue generation at destinations experiencing crises that can cause concerns for tourists.This is consistent with the studies of Nicola et al. (2020) and Samitas et al. (2018)  was a decline in revenue generation in destinations affected by crises, with consequences for the destination's socioeconomic development.

Qualitative result and discussion
This section presents the outcome of the interview sessions with the two attraction stakeholders who agreed to participate in the research.The analysis and discussion focus on their responses to their perceptions of crises and whether they have any implications on revenue generation, employment opportunities, and community livelihoods at the destination.

Perceptions of crisis and its influence on tourists/visitors
The research participants' (Zoo director/academic and attraction manager) opinions were consistent with results from the tourists, when asked about their perceptions of crises (e.g., Snatch theft/thuggery, ethnic conflict, kidnapping, terrorism) at the attraction.Nonetheless, they both agree that these crises can sometimes be a source of concern for tourism activities at the destinations, even though their perceptions are often exaggerated.For example, the Zoo's director says: There is a need to separate the issue of perceived and real crisis situations because of the negative effect of the former which have negative implications for tourism at the destinations in Nigeria.There is hardly any destination in the world without one form of crisis, and people still visit such places.(Zoo Director, Personal communication, April 30, 2023).This statement is consistent with the opinion of the attraction manager who notes that although there are cases of crises, they do not significantly impact their operations, other than the COVID-19 pandemic.These findings are congruent with the study of Fourie et al. (2020) and Ghaderi et al. (2017) which suggests that risk-tolerant tourists could still visit destinations despite threats of crises, especially when they are familiar with the region.
On the impact of crises on tourist/visitor arrivals, although the study could not get available data on tourist arrivals, the director at the attraction says: In the first quarter of 2023, a total of 857 visitors comprising adults and children visited the park between January and March.In January the park received 140 adults and 97 children.In February, 88 adults and 259 children.In March, 101 adults and 172 children visited the zoo and park.(Zoo Director, personal communication, April 30, 2023).This shows that even though the number of tourists/visitors visiting the attractions varies over a 3-month period, there is evidence of visitation at the site.This is consistent with the study of Fourie et al. (2020) and Ghaderi et al. (2017) which suggests that although there could be a threat of crises at destinations, some tourists, including domestic tourists could still visit attractions and other places of interest.Consistent with extant literature (Samitas et al., 2018;Sun et al., 2021) the findings from the interview sessions with the attraction official affirm that a crisis can impact revenue generation over the short and long period.Thus, the attraction official agrees that:

Implication of crises on revenue and employment
There are challenges with revenue generation associated with the crises faced at the attraction, including the period of the COVID-19 pandemic when there were social restrictions.And there has not been an improvement in government allocation to the attraction for a long time.Anyways, we are innovative in generating revenue when we get the support of the authorities (Attraction Manager, personal communication, April 30, 2023).
Similarly, the interactions with the attraction stakeholders reveal that crises can have negative implications for employment at the destination.For example, the attraction official says: We do not have the resources to employ more people than we would love to.But one of the ways to address problems of poor perceptions associated with crises that impact our capacity is to improve our recreation facilities.We tried to build our facilities so that more people would come in.This would benefit the community in terms of improved livelihood, as some of them would be gainfully employed with us.(Attraction Manager, personal communication, April 30, 2023).

CONCLUSION
This study examined stakeholders' (i.e., tourists' and attraction managers') perceptions of security crises, including snatch theft, tribal/ethnic conflict, Kidnapping, terrorism, and their influence on tourists, host communities, and revenue generation in Ogun State, Southwest, Nigeria.The study findings reveal that these crises other than the COVID-19 pandemic do not have a significant influence on the study respondents/research participants.However, the study findings show that most of the respondents (tourist/community visitors) are concerned about the high level of crises, especially the threat of terrorism at the destination.The study finds that this can result in a decline in investment, employment opportunities, community livelihood, and management of tourism resources at the destination.Nonetheless, the research participants (attraction managers) argued that the issue of crises is overblown through the mainstream and social media and has varying impacts on visitor arrivals and revenue generation, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.These findings have some policy implications for the destination authorities.Firstly, owing to the high level of threat associated with terrorism at the destination, as the study finds, there is a need for the destination management stakeholders, including the security agencies to continually carry out a risk assessment of their destinations/attractions, in collaboration with host communities to prevent its occurrence.Secondly, although the study findings suggest that the current level of crises at the destination does not adversely impact tourist/visitor arrivals, there is a need for the relevant authorities to employ segmentation techniques to promote safe places/attractions at the destination.This can help to attract potential /repeat tourists and tourism activities that could further boost revenue generation, employment opportunities, and livelihood of the community members at the destination.This study makes a significant theoretical and practical contribution to the literature associated with crises and tourism stakeholder perceptions in the Ogun State, Nigeria's context.The findings of this study could be employed as theoretical guidelines for other scholars studying crises in other similar destination contexts.Also, it can help relevant authorities appraise public perceptions about their destinations, and this can inform appropriate measures to enhance the socioeconomic development of the destination through tourism.
formula for sample size determination formula.This was due to the large population at the study destination.According to Yamane: N